Thursday, September 27, 2007
Game Over.
After tonight's loss the Braves are done. It's bad news but it allows fans to start speculating about next year. Oh, and screw you TBS. Just cuz you dropped the Braves for next year I'm dropping you from my Tivo for the playoffs. I'll get my games from MLB.com.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
More numbers
Despite the excitement of still being in the hunt for October come September 26th i'm going to shift focus to next year. The question now is what is going to happen in CF and what is going to happen in the rotation? First, let's look at the contracts that are going to stick around.
SP) Mike Hampton: $15m
3b) Chipper Jones: $15m
1B) Mark Teixeira: ~$13m
SP) John Smoltz: $14m
SP) Tim Hudson: $13m
RP) Mike Gonzolez: ~$4.5m
RP) Rafael Soriano: ~$2.5m
RP) Oscar Villarreal: ~$1.5m
C) Brian McCann: $.8m
RF) Jeff Francoeur: ~$.5m
RP) Tyler Yates: ~$.5m
RP) Lance Cromier: ~$.5m
RP) Buddy Carlyle: ~$.5m
SP) Chuck James: ~$.5m
LF) Matt Diaz: ~$.5m
SS) Younel Escobar: ~$.35m
2B) Kelly Johnson: ~$.35m
CF) Willy Harris: ~$.35m
RP) Peter Moylan: ~$.35m
RP) Royce Ring: ~$.35m
RP) Jose Ascanio: ~$.35m
RP) Many Acosta: ~$.35m
C) Corky Miller: ~$.35m
Scott Thorman: ?
Chad Paranto: ?
Ron Mahay: ?
Chris Woodward: ?
Edgar Renteria: $7m
Andruw Jones: ?
Octavio Dotel: ?
That totals just over $85m w/o bench players and a starter.
You may notice that I have 10 relievers listed. 3 of which will not make the opening day roster. I predict that Lance and Buddy won't make it and Gonzo is out for 1/2 the year. But you never know with baseball. Either way, none of the pitchers listed as being sent down make much so it won't affect totals significantly.
You also can see I also have 6 players listed separately from the rest. These are the 7 I see taking a walk. With the exception of Mahay, all come with baggage (contract, inability to play baseball). Mahay is a great pitcher but he might be too expensive to keep in his role as space filler.
Now let's look at what's missing. The biggest hole is in the rotation of course. Personally I see Glavine coming back at $10m (if the Mets decline his $13m option as they likely will do). Plugging him into the #3 hole and adding his $10m we have a payroll of just north of $95m which is about where we would expect Liberty to set it.
However, I doubt JS will be standing pat with Hampton being counted on. I see Thorman going to another club for a down on his luck starter. I have a feeling Cliff Lee might be that guy. His $15m contract extension looked great at the time, but since then his ERA is well over 6 and he has been limited to a relief role. The boy is a classic change of scenery guy. But Thorman won't be enough to net him. I don't know what beyond that will be called for but this is a deal that can get done, and before you even thing Rent's name i want to point out that the Indians have a SS and would rather shed payroll than take it on. Btw, Lee is making $3.75m next year. If Hampton goes down again that's quite a bit less than the insurance will pay out.
In terms of Renteria I see him getting moved. With his contention for the batting title and his solid performance it's almost a certainty that some team will be drooling over him. The return is based on what other teams have to give but anything from a rising star in center to some pitching prospects is not out of the question.
Add in bench players and we're looking at around $100m and the devision title.
SP) Mike Hampton: $15m
3b) Chipper Jones: $15m
1B) Mark Teixeira: ~$13m
SP) John Smoltz: $14m
SP) Tim Hudson: $13m
RP) Mike Gonzolez: ~$4.5m
RP) Rafael Soriano: ~$2.5m
RP) Oscar Villarreal: ~$1.5m
C) Brian McCann: $.8m
RF) Jeff Francoeur: ~$.5m
RP) Tyler Yates: ~$.5m
RP) Lance Cromier: ~$.5m
RP) Buddy Carlyle: ~$.5m
SP) Chuck James: ~$.5m
LF) Matt Diaz: ~$.5m
SS) Younel Escobar: ~$.35m
2B) Kelly Johnson: ~$.35m
CF) Willy Harris: ~$.35m
RP) Peter Moylan: ~$.35m
RP) Royce Ring: ~$.35m
RP) Jose Ascanio: ~$.35m
RP) Many Acosta: ~$.35m
C) Corky Miller: ~$.35m
Scott Thorman: ?
Chad Paranto: ?
Ron Mahay: ?
Chris Woodward: ?
Edgar Renteria: $7m
Andruw Jones: ?
Octavio Dotel: ?
That totals just over $85m w/o bench players and a starter.
You may notice that I have 10 relievers listed. 3 of which will not make the opening day roster. I predict that Lance and Buddy won't make it and Gonzo is out for 1/2 the year. But you never know with baseball. Either way, none of the pitchers listed as being sent down make much so it won't affect totals significantly.
You also can see I also have 6 players listed separately from the rest. These are the 7 I see taking a walk. With the exception of Mahay, all come with baggage (contract, inability to play baseball). Mahay is a great pitcher but he might be too expensive to keep in his role as space filler.
Now let's look at what's missing. The biggest hole is in the rotation of course. Personally I see Glavine coming back at $10m (if the Mets decline his $13m option as they likely will do). Plugging him into the #3 hole and adding his $10m we have a payroll of just north of $95m which is about where we would expect Liberty to set it.
However, I doubt JS will be standing pat with Hampton being counted on. I see Thorman going to another club for a down on his luck starter. I have a feeling Cliff Lee might be that guy. His $15m contract extension looked great at the time, but since then his ERA is well over 6 and he has been limited to a relief role. The boy is a classic change of scenery guy. But Thorman won't be enough to net him. I don't know what beyond that will be called for but this is a deal that can get done, and before you even thing Rent's name i want to point out that the Indians have a SS and would rather shed payroll than take it on. Btw, Lee is making $3.75m next year. If Hampton goes down again that's quite a bit less than the insurance will pay out.
In terms of Renteria I see him getting moved. With his contention for the batting title and his solid performance it's almost a certainty that some team will be drooling over him. The return is based on what other teams have to give but anything from a rising star in center to some pitching prospects is not out of the question.
Add in bench players and we're looking at around $100m and the devision title.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Good news!
The Pads lost yesterday dropping them into a tie for the wild card with the Phils. They now need to loose about 4 more games for the bravos to overtake them! Go Braves!
Monday, September 24, 2007
A wild card?
This is going to be an exciting week. Take a look.
The braves are currently 3.5 behind the Pads for the wild card with the Phils and the Rox between them.
The braves face the Phils for 3 with favorable pitching match ups all 3 days. If we sweep the Phils will be 1 game behind us.
The Pads face the Giants w/o their spark plug, Bradley, who is likely done for the regular season. We need the pads to drop 5/7 between the Giants and the Brewers.
The Rockies face the Dodgers and the D-Backs. That is w/o doubt the worst sched for the last week. Even worse, the Dodgers series is away from Coors.
It's not impossible but it's never happened before. GO BRAVES!
The braves are currently 3.5 behind the Pads for the wild card with the Phils and the Rox between them.
The braves face the Phils for 3 with favorable pitching match ups all 3 days. If we sweep the Phils will be 1 game behind us.
The Pads face the Giants w/o their spark plug, Bradley, who is likely done for the regular season. We need the pads to drop 5/7 between the Giants and the Brewers.
The Rockies face the Dodgers and the D-Backs. That is w/o doubt the worst sched for the last week. Even worse, the Dodgers series is away from Coors.
It's not impossible but it's never happened before. GO BRAVES!
Friday, September 21, 2007
A Game of Numbers
Let's play:
If you do the math, the only way the braves get into the post season is if at least 2 teams from either the east or the west play .500 ball and the braves don't loose again.
NL East,
Only 4.5 back but 3 back of the Phils. who are on fire.
NL West,
The Rox and the Pads are up on us with the rox having 1 game and the Pads having 5.5. Have i mentioned the braves have the second longest winning streak in baseball? Second only to the Pads and tied with the Rox.
The race for the batting title is among 3 people, 2 Braves and a Rockie. For the moment CJ is on top and Rent is 3rd but over the last several days the mix has shuffled over and over. All i have to say on the matter is, if a brave doesn't win and the team misses the playoffs here will be hell to pay.
If you do the math, the only way the braves get into the post season is if at least 2 teams from either the east or the west play .500 ball and the braves don't loose again.
NL East,
Only 4.5 back but 3 back of the Phils. who are on fire.
NL West,
The Rox and the Pads are up on us with the rox having 1 game and the Pads having 5.5. Have i mentioned the braves have the second longest winning streak in baseball? Second only to the Pads and tied with the Rox.
The race for the batting title is among 3 people, 2 Braves and a Rockie. For the moment CJ is on top and Rent is 3rd but over the last several days the mix has shuffled over and over. All i have to say on the matter is, if a brave doesn't win and the team misses the playoffs here will be hell to pay.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
See
It's just like I said, the Braves can't prove it wasn't a fluke. Well, the good news is that the braves played fairly well in all three games. Both the losses came by one run affairs so it's not as horrible as the last time these two teams matched up. If you're wondering, after the last 2 one-run losses the braves now stand at 6-18 in one run games away from the Ted. Ouch. If they won 1/2 those 24 games the bravos would be in second and nipping on the heals of the Mets. Opportunities lost.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
La La LA!
Recently i'm feeling like a 3year old when it comes to the Braves. I know they're all but done for, but I still hope for the miracle. The problem is, everyone is proclaiming their downfall. Every time i hear it I imagine myself sticking my fingers in my ears and yelling "LaLaLA I'm not Listening!" And then the Braves go and do something stupid like pound the mets to a pulp with our friend Buddy pitching. What the hell is wrong with this team? Can't they see that all this hope is crushing us? Can't they understand that '08 is where our emotions should be focused, not today. You can't just go out and beat up on the best team in the national league and then come into work the next day and say "Woops, we're tired from yesterday." The Braves' job now is to prove that they're not one hit wonders, if only to themselves. But we all know the truth, the Braves are done, just don't yell it at me. Speak it softly, whisper it among friends when you can be sure no one is listening. It's to early to wake this giant.
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