Thursday, September 27, 2007
Game Over.
After tonight's loss the Braves are done. It's bad news but it allows fans to start speculating about next year. Oh, and screw you TBS. Just cuz you dropped the Braves for next year I'm dropping you from my Tivo for the playoffs. I'll get my games from MLB.com.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
More numbers
Despite the excitement of still being in the hunt for October come September 26th i'm going to shift focus to next year. The question now is what is going to happen in CF and what is going to happen in the rotation? First, let's look at the contracts that are going to stick around.
SP) Mike Hampton: $15m
3b) Chipper Jones: $15m
1B) Mark Teixeira: ~$13m
SP) John Smoltz: $14m
SP) Tim Hudson: $13m
RP) Mike Gonzolez: ~$4.5m
RP) Rafael Soriano: ~$2.5m
RP) Oscar Villarreal: ~$1.5m
C) Brian McCann: $.8m
RF) Jeff Francoeur: ~$.5m
RP) Tyler Yates: ~$.5m
RP) Lance Cromier: ~$.5m
RP) Buddy Carlyle: ~$.5m
SP) Chuck James: ~$.5m
LF) Matt Diaz: ~$.5m
SS) Younel Escobar: ~$.35m
2B) Kelly Johnson: ~$.35m
CF) Willy Harris: ~$.35m
RP) Peter Moylan: ~$.35m
RP) Royce Ring: ~$.35m
RP) Jose Ascanio: ~$.35m
RP) Many Acosta: ~$.35m
C) Corky Miller: ~$.35m
Scott Thorman: ?
Chad Paranto: ?
Ron Mahay: ?
Chris Woodward: ?
Edgar Renteria: $7m
Andruw Jones: ?
Octavio Dotel: ?
That totals just over $85m w/o bench players and a starter.
You may notice that I have 10 relievers listed. 3 of which will not make the opening day roster. I predict that Lance and Buddy won't make it and Gonzo is out for 1/2 the year. But you never know with baseball. Either way, none of the pitchers listed as being sent down make much so it won't affect totals significantly.
You also can see I also have 6 players listed separately from the rest. These are the 7 I see taking a walk. With the exception of Mahay, all come with baggage (contract, inability to play baseball). Mahay is a great pitcher but he might be too expensive to keep in his role as space filler.
Now let's look at what's missing. The biggest hole is in the rotation of course. Personally I see Glavine coming back at $10m (if the Mets decline his $13m option as they likely will do). Plugging him into the #3 hole and adding his $10m we have a payroll of just north of $95m which is about where we would expect Liberty to set it.
However, I doubt JS will be standing pat with Hampton being counted on. I see Thorman going to another club for a down on his luck starter. I have a feeling Cliff Lee might be that guy. His $15m contract extension looked great at the time, but since then his ERA is well over 6 and he has been limited to a relief role. The boy is a classic change of scenery guy. But Thorman won't be enough to net him. I don't know what beyond that will be called for but this is a deal that can get done, and before you even thing Rent's name i want to point out that the Indians have a SS and would rather shed payroll than take it on. Btw, Lee is making $3.75m next year. If Hampton goes down again that's quite a bit less than the insurance will pay out.
In terms of Renteria I see him getting moved. With his contention for the batting title and his solid performance it's almost a certainty that some team will be drooling over him. The return is based on what other teams have to give but anything from a rising star in center to some pitching prospects is not out of the question.
Add in bench players and we're looking at around $100m and the devision title.
SP) Mike Hampton: $15m
3b) Chipper Jones: $15m
1B) Mark Teixeira: ~$13m
SP) John Smoltz: $14m
SP) Tim Hudson: $13m
RP) Mike Gonzolez: ~$4.5m
RP) Rafael Soriano: ~$2.5m
RP) Oscar Villarreal: ~$1.5m
C) Brian McCann: $.8m
RF) Jeff Francoeur: ~$.5m
RP) Tyler Yates: ~$.5m
RP) Lance Cromier: ~$.5m
RP) Buddy Carlyle: ~$.5m
SP) Chuck James: ~$.5m
LF) Matt Diaz: ~$.5m
SS) Younel Escobar: ~$.35m
2B) Kelly Johnson: ~$.35m
CF) Willy Harris: ~$.35m
RP) Peter Moylan: ~$.35m
RP) Royce Ring: ~$.35m
RP) Jose Ascanio: ~$.35m
RP) Many Acosta: ~$.35m
C) Corky Miller: ~$.35m
Scott Thorman: ?
Chad Paranto: ?
Ron Mahay: ?
Chris Woodward: ?
Edgar Renteria: $7m
Andruw Jones: ?
Octavio Dotel: ?
That totals just over $85m w/o bench players and a starter.
You may notice that I have 10 relievers listed. 3 of which will not make the opening day roster. I predict that Lance and Buddy won't make it and Gonzo is out for 1/2 the year. But you never know with baseball. Either way, none of the pitchers listed as being sent down make much so it won't affect totals significantly.
You also can see I also have 6 players listed separately from the rest. These are the 7 I see taking a walk. With the exception of Mahay, all come with baggage (contract, inability to play baseball). Mahay is a great pitcher but he might be too expensive to keep in his role as space filler.
Now let's look at what's missing. The biggest hole is in the rotation of course. Personally I see Glavine coming back at $10m (if the Mets decline his $13m option as they likely will do). Plugging him into the #3 hole and adding his $10m we have a payroll of just north of $95m which is about where we would expect Liberty to set it.
However, I doubt JS will be standing pat with Hampton being counted on. I see Thorman going to another club for a down on his luck starter. I have a feeling Cliff Lee might be that guy. His $15m contract extension looked great at the time, but since then his ERA is well over 6 and he has been limited to a relief role. The boy is a classic change of scenery guy. But Thorman won't be enough to net him. I don't know what beyond that will be called for but this is a deal that can get done, and before you even thing Rent's name i want to point out that the Indians have a SS and would rather shed payroll than take it on. Btw, Lee is making $3.75m next year. If Hampton goes down again that's quite a bit less than the insurance will pay out.
In terms of Renteria I see him getting moved. With his contention for the batting title and his solid performance it's almost a certainty that some team will be drooling over him. The return is based on what other teams have to give but anything from a rising star in center to some pitching prospects is not out of the question.
Add in bench players and we're looking at around $100m and the devision title.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Good news!
The Pads lost yesterday dropping them into a tie for the wild card with the Phils. They now need to loose about 4 more games for the bravos to overtake them! Go Braves!
Monday, September 24, 2007
A wild card?
This is going to be an exciting week. Take a look.
The braves are currently 3.5 behind the Pads for the wild card with the Phils and the Rox between them.
The braves face the Phils for 3 with favorable pitching match ups all 3 days. If we sweep the Phils will be 1 game behind us.
The Pads face the Giants w/o their spark plug, Bradley, who is likely done for the regular season. We need the pads to drop 5/7 between the Giants and the Brewers.
The Rockies face the Dodgers and the D-Backs. That is w/o doubt the worst sched for the last week. Even worse, the Dodgers series is away from Coors.
It's not impossible but it's never happened before. GO BRAVES!
The braves are currently 3.5 behind the Pads for the wild card with the Phils and the Rox between them.
The braves face the Phils for 3 with favorable pitching match ups all 3 days. If we sweep the Phils will be 1 game behind us.
The Pads face the Giants w/o their spark plug, Bradley, who is likely done for the regular season. We need the pads to drop 5/7 between the Giants and the Brewers.
The Rockies face the Dodgers and the D-Backs. That is w/o doubt the worst sched for the last week. Even worse, the Dodgers series is away from Coors.
It's not impossible but it's never happened before. GO BRAVES!
Friday, September 21, 2007
A Game of Numbers
Let's play:
If you do the math, the only way the braves get into the post season is if at least 2 teams from either the east or the west play .500 ball and the braves don't loose again.
NL East,
Only 4.5 back but 3 back of the Phils. who are on fire.
NL West,
The Rox and the Pads are up on us with the rox having 1 game and the Pads having 5.5. Have i mentioned the braves have the second longest winning streak in baseball? Second only to the Pads and tied with the Rox.
The race for the batting title is among 3 people, 2 Braves and a Rockie. For the moment CJ is on top and Rent is 3rd but over the last several days the mix has shuffled over and over. All i have to say on the matter is, if a brave doesn't win and the team misses the playoffs here will be hell to pay.
If you do the math, the only way the braves get into the post season is if at least 2 teams from either the east or the west play .500 ball and the braves don't loose again.
NL East,
Only 4.5 back but 3 back of the Phils. who are on fire.
NL West,
The Rox and the Pads are up on us with the rox having 1 game and the Pads having 5.5. Have i mentioned the braves have the second longest winning streak in baseball? Second only to the Pads and tied with the Rox.
The race for the batting title is among 3 people, 2 Braves and a Rockie. For the moment CJ is on top and Rent is 3rd but over the last several days the mix has shuffled over and over. All i have to say on the matter is, if a brave doesn't win and the team misses the playoffs here will be hell to pay.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
See
It's just like I said, the Braves can't prove it wasn't a fluke. Well, the good news is that the braves played fairly well in all three games. Both the losses came by one run affairs so it's not as horrible as the last time these two teams matched up. If you're wondering, after the last 2 one-run losses the braves now stand at 6-18 in one run games away from the Ted. Ouch. If they won 1/2 those 24 games the bravos would be in second and nipping on the heals of the Mets. Opportunities lost.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
La La LA!
Recently i'm feeling like a 3year old when it comes to the Braves. I know they're all but done for, but I still hope for the miracle. The problem is, everyone is proclaiming their downfall. Every time i hear it I imagine myself sticking my fingers in my ears and yelling "LaLaLA I'm not Listening!" And then the Braves go and do something stupid like pound the mets to a pulp with our friend Buddy pitching. What the hell is wrong with this team? Can't they see that all this hope is crushing us? Can't they understand that '08 is where our emotions should be focused, not today. You can't just go out and beat up on the best team in the national league and then come into work the next day and say "Woops, we're tired from yesterday." The Braves' job now is to prove that they're not one hit wonders, if only to themselves. But we all know the truth, the Braves are done, just don't yell it at me. Speak it softly, whisper it among friends when you can be sure no one is listening. It's to early to wake this giant.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
National Joke
I've never seen a team so ready to give up. It's scary, but good news for the Braves. That big comeback against the Phils has really given the team a shot in the arm.
Anyway, here are a few things that make me hopeful for '08.
-Andrew's struggles. Yes the fact that our star center fielder is hitting just north of the mendoza line give me hope. As I've said before Andrew's complete inability to hit, his bone jarring swing, and his less than desirable unwillingness to adapt to the situation at the plate make him kriptonite to a rally. And that makes his price tag lower. Take a look at what Torri Hunter is asking for. $70m for 4 years. Andrew won't make that, but he might pull off another deal like his last.
-Diaz for team MVP. When was the last time you saw a platoon player mean as much to a team as Diaz? He's still hitting close to .350 with over 300 ABs. The unfortunate thing is that due to his lack of playing time and pinch hitting duties his peripherals are low. (Hey you try and hit coming off the bench).
-Escobar is my hero. The boy has a talent for being in the right place at the right time, and producing. Rent is a great player, but i'd take similar production and defense for 1/27th his salary. Add in the fact that the $9m we're playing him is only part of his total contract and you have an even bigger bargain.
-Get out your brooms. The braves look for the sweep today but face their nemesis Jason Bergman. He owns the Braves. An ERA of 1.00 with 22ks in 3 starts and 18 innings this year. Ouch. Looking at his overall numbers i wouldn't mind seeing him in a Braves uni next year, if just to not have to face him again...
Anyway, here are a few things that make me hopeful for '08.
-Andrew's struggles. Yes the fact that our star center fielder is hitting just north of the mendoza line give me hope. As I've said before Andrew's complete inability to hit, his bone jarring swing, and his less than desirable unwillingness to adapt to the situation at the plate make him kriptonite to a rally. And that makes his price tag lower. Take a look at what Torri Hunter is asking for. $70m for 4 years. Andrew won't make that, but he might pull off another deal like his last.
-Diaz for team MVP. When was the last time you saw a platoon player mean as much to a team as Diaz? He's still hitting close to .350 with over 300 ABs. The unfortunate thing is that due to his lack of playing time and pinch hitting duties his peripherals are low. (Hey you try and hit coming off the bench).
-Escobar is my hero. The boy has a talent for being in the right place at the right time, and producing. Rent is a great player, but i'd take similar production and defense for 1/27th his salary. Add in the fact that the $9m we're playing him is only part of his total contract and you have an even bigger bargain.
-Get out your brooms. The braves look for the sweep today but face their nemesis Jason Bergman. He owns the Braves. An ERA of 1.00 with 22ks in 3 starts and 18 innings this year. Ouch. Looking at his overall numbers i wouldn't mind seeing him in a Braves uni next year, if just to not have to face him again...
Friday, September 7, 2007
Projecting '08 Roster (Part 1)
I updated the roster on the left to reflect the September 1 call ups. That got me thinking about 2008. In part 1 of this three part series I take a look at '08 on the field.
The biggest question about '08 is what will Andrew do? Will he sign a 1year and stay with the Braves and cash in after the season? Will he take the money and run? I think it comes down to how he feels. He's been dealing with a lot of nagging injuries and that's kept him down this year. If he thinks it's going to get better, why not stick around with the only club he's known and push for the pennant in '08? If he knows the end is nearing he should try and milk the market for everything he can. I predict the former, AJ will reup with the Bravos @ $10m.
The next biggest question is where does Escobar play if Rent sticks around? He's to valuable to ride the bench and too cheap to trade off. That means Rent needs to move, hopefully for a pitcher. Bottom line, Rent gone, Escobar here.
The final question is what happens in left? What am I saying? We know who's won the spot. Diaz in Left, Willy OF #4.
This makes our lineup:
1) Escobar/SS
2) KJ (8th is not where I'd put him)/2b
3) Chipper/3b
4) Boomstick (Tex)/1b
5) Frenchy/RF
6) Diaz/LF
7) AJ/CF
8) Heap (McCann)/C
What should scare the mets is that the #8 hitter already has 84 RBIs in '07. BTW, 5 braves are on pace to drive in over 100.
There you have it. 1-8 and they look great. Next up, The rotation.
The biggest question about '08 is what will Andrew do? Will he sign a 1year and stay with the Braves and cash in after the season? Will he take the money and run? I think it comes down to how he feels. He's been dealing with a lot of nagging injuries and that's kept him down this year. If he thinks it's going to get better, why not stick around with the only club he's known and push for the pennant in '08? If he knows the end is nearing he should try and milk the market for everything he can. I predict the former, AJ will reup with the Bravos @ $10m.
The next biggest question is where does Escobar play if Rent sticks around? He's to valuable to ride the bench and too cheap to trade off. That means Rent needs to move, hopefully for a pitcher. Bottom line, Rent gone, Escobar here.
The final question is what happens in left? What am I saying? We know who's won the spot. Diaz in Left, Willy OF #4.
This makes our lineup:
1) Escobar/SS
2) KJ (8th is not where I'd put him)/2b
3) Chipper/3b
4) Boomstick (Tex)/1b
5) Frenchy/RF
6) Diaz/LF
7) AJ/CF
8) Heap (McCann)/C
What should scare the mets is that the #8 hitter already has 84 RBIs in '07. BTW, 5 braves are on pace to drive in over 100.
There you have it. 1-8 and they look great. Next up, The rotation.
Braves Pitching
We all know the line about Chuck James being a decent #3 in the rotation and Hampton coming back and being slotted into #4 next season if the braves don't get another starter. It's bull. JS is sweating over that thought. I'm fairly sure he'd quit if he couldn't fix the rotation over the winter. With this in mind there are a few names that might save his sanity.
1) John Garland- This trade got shot down before but might be revisited. Rent and a starting prospect might be enough to being him in. However, i'm not sure if 11 hits in 6 innings against the Pirates inspires much confidence.
2) Josh Towers- The Jays seem to be eager to move him but his flyball tendencies and a .295 opponents average keeps his value down. He'll be the wrong side of 30 on '08 but he'll be pulling in only a few mill in arb. I'd put him as a #4 or 5. Not a #3.
3) Tom Glavine- Yes old Tommy boy is available again (he has a $9m player option). His option is decent but i'm sure he can get more on the open market. He has just north of a 4.00 ERA and a respectable whip. The only down side? Greg doesn't seem to want to return. Oh, and he'll cost over $10m (Garland gets $12m in '08 btw).
4) Joel Pineiro- The guy is an innings eater and a lock for stying in the NL. The AL has his number. The good news is that he'll come cheap. I don;t see him being a #3, but back of the rotation could do worse.
5) Dontrelle Willis- This is the perfect #3 for the Braves. D-Train has tons of raw talent but needs a better defense behind him and some vets to mentor him. The best news is that he could earn $7m in arbitration meaning the Marlins might want to move him. Now we just have to outbid the Mets...
What ever happens we know it'll be major. JS is playing for keeps in '08, just look @ the Tex trade. Let the rumors start!
1) John Garland- This trade got shot down before but might be revisited. Rent and a starting prospect might be enough to being him in. However, i'm not sure if 11 hits in 6 innings against the Pirates inspires much confidence.
2) Josh Towers- The Jays seem to be eager to move him but his flyball tendencies and a .295 opponents average keeps his value down. He'll be the wrong side of 30 on '08 but he'll be pulling in only a few mill in arb. I'd put him as a #4 or 5. Not a #3.
3) Tom Glavine- Yes old Tommy boy is available again (he has a $9m player option). His option is decent but i'm sure he can get more on the open market. He has just north of a 4.00 ERA and a respectable whip. The only down side? Greg doesn't seem to want to return. Oh, and he'll cost over $10m (Garland gets $12m in '08 btw).
4) Joel Pineiro- The guy is an innings eater and a lock for stying in the NL. The AL has his number. The good news is that he'll come cheap. I don;t see him being a #3, but back of the rotation could do worse.
5) Dontrelle Willis- This is the perfect #3 for the Braves. D-Train has tons of raw talent but needs a better defense behind him and some vets to mentor him. The best news is that he could earn $7m in arbitration meaning the Marlins might want to move him. Now we just have to outbid the Mets...
What ever happens we know it'll be major. JS is playing for keeps in '08, just look @ the Tex trade. Let the rumors start!
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Off Day
Gotta love an off day in September, especially when the team you're facing the next series is the Nats. Coming off such a big win as yesterday, a win in this series would vault the braves back to respectability. I hope. Take a look at every one else's next matchup.
Houston @ NY, The mets split their only other series with the 'Stros @ Houston. A fun number to throw out is that the Astros outscored the mets 17-14 in the series.
Fish @ Philly, The Phills dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly fish before coming to Atlanta. Oh, and the Fish hit Philly very well. They're slugging .512 against the Phills .456 in meetings this year. BTW: 5 Fish are hitting over .330 and slugging over .610 against them this year. One of which is pitching on Sunday.
The Braves are 7-5 against the Nats including a sweep last time out. The Bravos have a 60-31 run differential and Chipper has an OBPS of 1.149 against them. Ouch.
If we win the last 5 series we have an outside shot at the wildcard. Not much hope. Good news is we can at least finish second this year.
Houston @ NY, The mets split their only other series with the 'Stros @ Houston. A fun number to throw out is that the Astros outscored the mets 17-14 in the series.
Fish @ Philly, The Phills dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly fish before coming to Atlanta. Oh, and the Fish hit Philly very well. They're slugging .512 against the Phills .456 in meetings this year. BTW: 5 Fish are hitting over .330 and slugging over .610 against them this year. One of which is pitching on Sunday.
The Braves are 7-5 against the Nats including a sweep last time out. The Bravos have a 60-31 run differential and Chipper has an OBPS of 1.149 against them. Ouch.
If we win the last 5 series we have an outside shot at the wildcard. Not much hope. Good news is we can at least finish second this year.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Matt Diaz is my Hero
If you missed today's 9th inning you should go ahead and smack your head against the wall. I'll wait... done? No? Come on man, I don't have all day. Good. Now that you've punished yourself here's what happened. Braves down 2 Bret Myers on the mound. After 2 quick outs Frenchy and Prado hit infield singles. Escobar then walks on 4 pitches. Bases loaded, Diaz at the plate. Honestly, who would you rather have up there right now? Of course Diaz smacks a double off the glove of Roberson. Escobar was in motion at first on the crack of the bat and chugged all the way around form first to beat the throw. Braves 9, Phills 8. If you wanted a spark plug game this was it.
It Lives!
Despite being forced to build a new computer from scratch (all i saved was a fan from the old computer) and finding an undying hatred for Comcast and their slow frigging service I am back online. I know i've missed almost a month of prime braves news, but i'm picking up today and not giving up until this comp dies.
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