Monday, July 30, 2007

A Couple of Things...

...have been bothering me lately. First, this trade for Tex seems to be unfavorable to the Braves long term. Second, why was Escobar held onto so tightly? Finally, why does Atlanta seem to be willing to suddenly trade prospects when for years they've held them so tightly? Tough questions.

Let's start with the obvious answer to the first question. Tex makes the Braves a threat to win the devision and the NL overall. I shy away from saying World Series because year after year the team with the best pitching wins the series. The Braves just don't have that pitching... yet. But I still don't like this trade if that's all we're looking at. Personally, and I have noting from JS to back this up, I think that this move serves the purposes beyond the contention part. First, we now have a ligitamate #4 hitter to put behind Chipper, and that also forces Andrew into the 5 hole, a position where he's had some success. Second, it puts pressure on AJ in the off season. If he knows the Braves are going to be good (and they are as he's the only big player looking to leave) it's harder to walk away. AJ has spent his entire career here and wants to win here, plain and simple. Finally, I think JS is confident that one of two things will happen. Either the prospects will not reach their full potential or Tex will resign.

Next let's look at Escobar. If you've ever seen him play you'll know why Bobby loves this guy. The heads up play on Saturday was a perfect example. To steal that base right under the nose of 4-5 players who should have been paying attention is amazing. That kind of play is not something you can really teach and not something that comes across in scouting reports. That leads to him being undervalued and thus important to hold onto. Further, if the Braves want to trade Rent today/tomorrow or next year they'll need a SS ready to play in the majors. That's Escobar.

And the deep question, why trade prospects? Amazingly enough this one is the easiest to answer. They're over valued. Plain and simple. 5 years ago you couldn't get a guy like Tex for 3 minor leaguers and a backup catcher. I don't care how promising they are, these trades almost always included a proven ML player. Today, trades like this don't happen because it's become more economical to play with players who are home grown than to sign a FA. The down side is it's hard to predict young player's contributions. That makes being a perennial contender difficult.

I think JS is doing the right thing. The common sentiment in baseball has swung one direction, and JS is pioneering another. Good work.

1 comment:

Corey Bishop said...

They are trading prospects to win one last time before JS and BC call it quits.