Oswalt to the Braves?

The Houston Cronicle is reporting this morning that Roy Oswalt would consider waiving his no trade clause if the team asked him to.

"If they came to me and they thought it was better for the future of the organization if they traded me, I'd do whatever's best for the future of the team," said Oswalt. "The key is if that's what the organization wants and thinks is best for the team to get better."

The article specifically mentions the Braves as well as Red Sox and the Cards as potential destinations that Oswalt would approve. Oswalt signed a 5 year extension last August at a very team friendly $73m making him well within the braves reach payroll wise. But such a nice below market contract means that the braves would have to give up alot to pull this one off. Except for 1b the Astros could use about anything we have to trade. Their starting catcher is 38 and their SS is a super utility player. A package of Salty, one of our stable of SS, and another minor leaguer (almost certainly a pitcher) would likely get it done. If the braves wanted to make this serious they could also probably get Lidge in this trade but the price would be huge. We're talking Elvis huge people.

Now some of you are thinking "What about that Buherle guy? I know the braves were in on that." You're absolutely correct and the thing that pushes me toward Oswalt is the report that Buherle was close to a 4 year deal @ $53m that fell through due to his insistence on a no trade clause. Now, such a team friendly deal usually warrants such a clause but the White Sox dropping the matter over it indicates that they had a sutor but the hitch was the impending FA status. Oswalt doesn't have the problem and that makes him much more attractive.

If we look at how all three teams are posturing themselves, it become apparent that two things are happening. First, both the selling teams (Astros and the White Sox) have postured in such a way as to state that they don't NEED to sell any players and they might not WANT to sell. This is a common posture for most sellers of high commodity items. By trying to instill the idea that these items are not necessarily available at a low price (even though they might be) and that any team interested would have to give up the farm to get them, each team hopes to raise the price and even create a bidding war. I'd expect that both teams, if they really are shopping their pitchers, to begin leaking rumors like the Buherle to the Red Sox rumors that keep cropping up.

Second, the braves are acting like sellers also, just in a slightly different way. What they've done is bring up two of their best prospects (Salty and Escobar) and played them in platoon. We all know bobby loves platoons, but the braves currently have 3 going where any of the 6 players involved SHOULD be an everyday starter. How does this make the Braves a seller? Well, because we've shown that all of these players are ready to play in the bigs AND Bobby is comfortable playing them there, the team has a glut of performers and they can be had at the right price. This is not an unusual tactic (save for the platooning) but it does decrease the value of the players who had full time jobs and lost them to the rising stars. This indicates that Thorman and Johnson aren't going anywhere for a little while or if they are, they're not the key pieces in a trade.

Now when we step back and look at both sides we find ourselves in a conundrum. The braves are SELLERS and the White Sox/Astros are SELLERS. In a standard market nothing happens between these teams, however there is a wrinkle. The braves are selling position players who are cheap and the White Sox/Astros are selling expensive frontline starters. Both sides are buying what the other's selling. Now the GT comes into play. Each team wishes to maximize it's return for it's investment, thus each team will be selling from strength and acquiring to fill weaknesses. Both the White Sox and the Astros have weaknesses behind the plate and in the infield and both clubs have anemic bats. However, the Astros are MUCH worse off than the Sox. Looking @ the depth chart for the Sox there are 3 decent SS on the roster, a 2b that ain't to shabby, and 2 catchers making over $7m combined. No way does this team need what the Braves are selling... today. The hitch is that the braves have some great prospects down on the farm, Sammons and Lillibridge come to mind, that are at least a year removed from service. Both of these would help the Sox, not Salty and Escobar.

Looking at the Astros the story is different. Either Salty or Escobar could help them today as the team has virtually nothing @ SS and C. As I said before the fit is much better.